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Toss-up · 2018 House
Virginia House
In the 2018 Virginia House race, Elaine G. Luria (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
R+1.4
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.8 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+6.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.317 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.415 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-032
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-205
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership2018-10-078
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-2810
Change Research2018-09-273
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia House race?
Elaine G. Luria (D) won, by about 2.2 points (D+2.2).
When was the 2018 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.