Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
R+1.4
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.8 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.4 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+6.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.317 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 66% | 0.429 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 710 | EVEN | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-20 | 508 | R+2.8 | 5 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2018-10-07 | 682 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-28 | 500 | R+7.7 | 10 |
| Change Research | 2018-09-27 | 758 | R+0.5 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2018-09-07 | 404 | D+8.0 | 6 |