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Toss-up · 2018 House
Virginia House
In the 2018 Virginia House race, Elaine G. Luria (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
R+1.4
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.8 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+6.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.317 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 65% | 0.416 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-032
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-205
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership2018-10-078
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-2810
Change Research2018-09-273
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia House race?
Elaine G. Luria (D) won, by about 2.2 points (D+2.2).
When was the 2018 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.