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Toss-up · 2018 House
Virginia House
In the 2018 Virginia House race, Denver Riggleman (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TargetPoint | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 75% | 0.061 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 50% | 0.251 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-198
TargetPoint2018-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia House race?
Denver Riggleman (R) won, by about 6.5 points (R+6.5).
When was the 2018 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.