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Toss-up · 2018 House
Virginia House
In the 2018 Virginia House race, Denver Riggleman (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TargetPoint | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 50% | 0.251 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-198
TargetPoint2018-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia House race?
Denver Riggleman (R) won, by about 6.5 points (R+6.5).
When was the 2018 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.