Actual result
R+6.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.2 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | TargetPoint | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 50% | 0.251 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-19 | 501 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| TargetPoint | 2018-10-15 | 406 | R+5.0 | 2 |