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Toss-up · 2018 House
Virginia House
In the 2018 Virginia House race, Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.9
Final polls said
D+0.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | EVEN | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 50% | 0.254 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 58% | 0.341 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-014
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership2018-10-221
Normington, Petts & Associates2018-09-192
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-191
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-116
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia House race?
Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won, by about 1.9 points (D+1.9).
When was the 2018 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.