Actual result
D+1.9
Final polls said
D+0.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | EVEN | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+4.8 | 6.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 50% | 0.254 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 61% | 0.376 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-01 | 500 | R+1.8 | 4 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2018-10-22 | 790 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2018-09-19 | 400 | EVEN | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-19 | 329 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-11 | 501 | R+3.8 | 6 |