Toss-up · 2018 House

Virginia House

In the 2018 Virginia House race, Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+1.9

Final polls said

D+0.6

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership	D+3.0	1.1	✓
2	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+3.0	1.1	✓
3	Normington, Petts & Associates	EVEN	1.9	✗
4	The New York Times/Siena College	R+1.8	3.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 52%	0.230	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	The Economist	Rep 50%	0.254	✗
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 52%	0.270	✗
6	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 58%	0.341	✗