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Toss-up · 2018 House
Vermont House
In the 2018 Vermont House race, Peter Welch (D) won by about 43 points.
Actual result
D+43.3
Final polls said
D+38.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+38.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Braun Research | D+37.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-315
Braun Research2018-10-096
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Vermont House race?
Peter Welch (D) won, by about 43.3 points (D+43.3).
When was the 2018 Vermont House election held?
It was held in November 2018.