← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
Washington House
In the 2018 Washington House race, Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.3
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | D+2.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 73% | 0.071 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.151 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-162
Lake Research Partners2018-10-107
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Washington House race?
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) won, by about 5.3 points (R+5.3).
When was the 2018 Washington House election held?
It was held in November 2018.