Actual result
R+5.3
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners | D+2.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.151 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-16 | 497 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2018-10-10 | 400 | D+2.0 | 7 |