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Toss-up · 2018 House
Washington House
In the 2018 Washington House race, Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.3
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | D+2.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.151 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-162
Lake Research Partners2018-10-107
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Washington House race?
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) won, by about 5.3 points (R+5.3).
When was the 2018 Washington House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.