Actual result
R+9.5
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | FM3 Research | R+3.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 91% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.095 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | 2018-09-18 | 521 | R+3.0 | 7 |