Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
D+2.8
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.8 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.2 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Elway Research | R+10.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 54% | 0.296 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 59% | 0.345 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-01 | 477 | D+2.8 | 2 |
| Elway Research | 2018-10-06 | 400 | R+10.0 | 15 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-25 | 505 | D+0.5 | 4 |