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Toss-up · 2018 House
Washington House
In the 2018 Washington House race, Kim Schrier (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
D+2.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.8 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elway Research | R+10.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 54% | 0.296 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.315 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-012
Elway Research2018-10-0615
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-254
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Washington House race?
Kim Schrier (D) won, by about 4.8 points (D+4.8).
When was the 2018 Washington House election held?
It was held in November 2018.