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Toss-up · 2018 House
Washington House
In the 2018 Washington House race, Kim Schrier (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
D+2.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.8 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elway Research | R+10.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 54% | 0.296 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.315 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-012
Elway Research2018-10-0615
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-254
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Washington House race?
Kim Schrier (D) won, by about 4.8 points (D+4.8).
When was the 2018 Washington House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.