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Toss-up · 2018 House
Wisconsin House
In the 2018 Wisconsin House race, Bryan Steil (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+6.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 71% | 0.085 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-2013
Change Research2018-10-0410
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-126
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin House race?
Bryan Steil (R) won, by about 12.3 points (R+12.3).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.