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Toss-up · 2018 House
Wisconsin House
In the 2018 Wisconsin House race, Bryan Steil (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+6.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-2013
Change Research2018-10-0410
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-126
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin House race?
Bryan Steil (R) won, by about 12.3 points (R+12.3).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin House election held?
It was held in November 2018.