Actual result
R+12.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+6.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-10-20 | 551 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-04 | 501 | R+2.5 | 10 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-12 | 500 | R+6.3 | 6 |