Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+18.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+28.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 2018-10-31 | 500 | R+28.0 | 17 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 525 | R+2.0 | 9 |