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Toss-up · 2018 House
Wisconsin House
In the 2018 Wisconsin House race, Glenn Grothman (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+28.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns2018-10-3117
Change Research2018-10-289
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin House race?
Glenn Grothman (R) won, by about 11.0 points (R+11.0).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin House election held?
It was held in November 2018.