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Toss-up · 2018 House
Wisconsin House
In the 2018 Wisconsin House race, Glenn Grothman (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+28.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns2018-10-3117
Change Research2018-10-289
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin House race?
Glenn Grothman (R) won, by about 11.0 points (R+11.0).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.