Actual result
R+12.8
Final polls said
R+6.1
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.6 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+7.6 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.6 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+4.0 | 16.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 78% | 0.049 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.117 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-30 | 328 | R+7.6 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-16 | 490 | R+4.6 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-12 | 350 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2018-09-16 | 540 | D+4.0 | 17 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-14 | 274 | D+5.3 | 18 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-09 | 499 | R+8.0 | 5 |