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Toss-up · 2018 House
West Virginia House
In the 2018 West Virginia House race, Carol Miller (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+12.8
Final polls said
R+6.1
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+7.6 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.6 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+4.0 | 16.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 76% | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.117 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-305
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-168
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-1211
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2018-09-1617
Emerson College2018-09-1418
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 West Virginia House race?
Carol Miller (R) won, by about 12.8 points (R+12.8).
When was the 2018 West Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.