Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Arizona Senate

In the 2018 Arizona Senate race, Kyrsten Sinema (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+2.3

Final polls said

D+0.2

19 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Marist College	D+3.0	0.7	✓
2	YouGov	D+3.0	0.7	✓
3	Suffolk University	D+3.0	0.7	✓
4	Research Co.	D+1.0	1.3	✓
5	Emerson College	D+0.7	1.6	✓
6	Vox Populi Polling	D+4.0	1.7	✓
7	SSRS	D+4.0	1.7	✓
8	Change Research	D+0.2	2.1	✓
9	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+4.6	2.3	✓
10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	EVEN	2.3	✗
11	TargetSmart	D+5.0	2.7	✓
12	Noble Predictive Insights	R+1.0	3.3	✗
13	Gravis Marketing	R+1.0	3.3	✗
14	HighGround Inc.	R+1.2	3.5	✗
15	Latino Decisions	D+6.0	3.7	✓
16	The New York Times/Siena College	R+1.8	4.1	✗
17	Ipsos	R+2.0	4.3	✗
18	Trafalgar Group	R+2.1	4.4	✗
19	Data Orbital	D+8.2	5.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 67%	0.109	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 63%	0.138	✓
4	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 59%	0.168	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 57%	0.184	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—