Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
D+0.2
19 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+0.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Vox Populi Polling | D+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Change Research | D+0.2 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.6 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | TargetSmart | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | R+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 14 | HighGround Inc. | R+1.2 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 15 | Latino Decisions | D+6.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.8 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 18 | Ipsos | R+2.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 19 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | Data Orbital | D+8.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.151 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.184 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-04 | 1217 | R+2.1 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+4.6 | 2 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-02 | 758 | D+0.7 | 2 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2018-11-02 | 631 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+5.6 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-31 | 2166 | D+2.7 | 0 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-29 | 677 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-28 | 1165 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-28 | 643 | EVEN | 2 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2018-10-27 | 400 | R+1.2 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | R+4.8 | 7 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 702 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-25 | 506 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-25 | 972 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2018-10-22 | 600 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-21 | 799 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-17 | 606 | R+1.8 | 4 |
| Data Orbital | 2018-10-16 | 600 | D+8.2 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-09 | 783 | D+0.2 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-04 | 898 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 716 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2018-10-01 | 600 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-30 | 702 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-09-29 | 500 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-20 | 650 | D+5.5 | 3 |
| Latino Decisions | 2018-09-18 | 463 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2018-09-18 | 564 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-13 | 761 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| TargetSmart | 2018-09-10 | 800 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 710 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-09 | 1016 | D+2.6 | 0 |