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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Connecticut Senate
In the 2018 Connecticut Senate race, Christopher Murphy (D) won by about 20 points.
Actual result
D+20.2
Final polls said
D+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+20.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+23.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-316
Emerson College2018-10-283
Quinnipiac University2018-10-252
Quinnipiac University2018-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Connecticut Senate race?
Christopher Murphy (D) won, by about 20.2 points (D+20.2).
When was the 2018 Connecticut Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.