Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+17.8 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+20.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+23.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-31 | 681 | D+23.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 780 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-25 | 1201 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-05 | 767 | D+15.0 | 2 |