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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Connecticut Senate
In the 2018 Connecticut Senate race, Christopher Murphy (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+20.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+23.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-316
Emerson College2018-10-283
Quinnipiac University2018-10-252
Quinnipiac University2018-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Connecticut Senate race?
Christopher Murphy (D) won, by about 17.4 points (D+17.4).
When was the 2018 Connecticut Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.