Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+1.5
36 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+0.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+0.4 | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+0.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Strategic Research Associates | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research | R+1.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | R+1.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Cygnal | D+1.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 19 | Cherry Communications | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 20 | MWR Strategies | R+2.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 21 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 22 | KFF | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 23 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.5 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 24 | St. Pete Polls | D+3.7 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 25 | Targoz Market Research | R+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 26 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 27 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 28 | OnMessage Inc. | R+5.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 29 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 30 | Ipsos | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 31 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 32 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 33 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+8.2 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 63% | 0.391 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.464 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (51)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-04 | 1484 | R+1.7 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+0.6 | 0 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-11-03 | 3088 | D+3.7 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-02 | 784 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+2.6 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-11-01 | 1142 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2018-11-01 | 595 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-11-01 | 2733 | R+1.6 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-01 | 1236 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-31 | 753 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2018-10-30 | 558 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-10-30 | 2470 | D+1.9 | 2 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2018-10-29 | 1193 | D+0.4 | 1 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-29 | 696 | EVEN | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-29 | 2543 | D+2.2 | 2 |
| MWR Strategies | 2018-10-28 | 1005 | R+2.3 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-28 | 495 | D+1.8 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-10-27 | 500 | D+1.8 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | R+0.9 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 781 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-25 | 991 | EVEN | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-25 | 737 | D+3.5 | 4 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2018-10-25 | 1051 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-22 | 773 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-21 | 1069 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-20 | 665 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-10-20 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2018-10-20 | 704 | R+1.7 | 2 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-10-20 | 1575 | R+0.3 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-19 | 1161 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2018-10-19 | 698 | D+8.2 | 8 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2018-10-19 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-18 | 759 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2018-10-16 | 2200 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-10-15 | 1974 | R+1.4 | 1 |
| Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research | 2018-10-03 | 476 | R+1.5 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-09-29 | 2313 | D+0.7 | 1 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2018-09-29 | 1037 | D+1.2 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-29 | 779 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-09-26 | 815 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| KFF | 2018-09-25 | 522 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-09-23 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-09-22 | 888 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Cherry Communications | 2018-09-21 | 622 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2018-09-18 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2018-09-18 | 603 | EVEN | 0 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2018-09-15 | 850 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2018-09-10 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-09 | 1000 | R+1.4 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-08 | 634 | R+2.0 | 2 |