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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Florida Senate
In the 2018 Florida Senate race, Rick Scott (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+1.5
36 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+0.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+0.4 | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Strategic Research Associates | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research | R+1.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | R+1.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Cygnal | D+1.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | Cherry Communications | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 19 | MWR Strategies | R+2.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 20 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 21 | KFF | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.5 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 23 | St. Pete Polls | D+3.7 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Targoz Market Research | R+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 25 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 26 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 27 | OnMessage Inc. | R+5.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 28 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 29 | Ipsos | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 30 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 31 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 32 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+8.2 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.398 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.464 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
51 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2018-11-042
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-040
St. Pete Polls2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-11-025
Research Co.2018-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida Senate race?
Rick Scott (R) won, by about 0.1 points (R+0.1).
When was the 2018 Florida Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.