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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Florida Senate
In the 2018 Florida Senate race, Rick Scott (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+1.5
36 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+0.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+0.4 | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Strategic Research Associates | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research | R+1.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | R+1.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Cygnal | D+1.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | Cherry Communications | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 19 | MWR Strategies | R+2.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 20 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 21 | KFF | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.5 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 23 | St. Pete Polls | D+3.7 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Targoz Market Research | R+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 25 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 26 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 27 | OnMessage Inc. | R+5.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 28 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 29 | Ipsos | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 30 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 31 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 32 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+8.2 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.396 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.464 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
51 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2018-11-042
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-040
St. Pete Polls2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-11-025
Research Co.2018-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida Senate race?
Rick Scott (R) won, by about 0.1 points (R+0.1).
When was the 2018 Florida Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.