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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Indiana Senate
In the 2018 Indiana Senate race, Mike Braun (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
R+0.3
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Strategies | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | R+2.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+1.1 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+2.2 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+7.0 | 12.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | Vox Populi Polling | D+10.0 | 15.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 54% | 0.294 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.345 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-045
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-018
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-2913
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-10-275
Cygnal2018-10-263
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Indiana Senate race?
Mike Braun (R) won, by about 5.9 points (R+5.9).
When was the 2018 Indiana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.