Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Indiana Senate

In the 2018 Indiana Senate race, Mike Braun (R) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

R+5.9

Final polls said

R+0.3

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Mason Strategies	R+4.0	1.9	✓
2	American Viewpoint	R+4.0	1.9	✓
3	YouGov	R+3.0	2.9	✓
4	Cygnal	R+2.9	3.0	✓
5	Harris Insights & Analytics	R+1.1	4.8	✓
6	SurveyUSA	D+1.0	6.9	✗
7	Ipsos	D+2.2	8.1	✗
8	Marist College	D+3.0	8.9	✗
9	Gravis Marketing	D+4.0	9.9	✗
10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+7.0	12.9	✗
11	Vox Populi Polling	D+10.0	15.9	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
3	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 54%	0.294	✗
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 59%	0.345	✗
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 59%	0.348	✗
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 62%	0.384	✗