Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
R+0.3
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Strategies | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | R+2.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+2.4 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+1.1 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+2.2 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+7.0 | 12.9 | ✗ |
| 12 | Vox Populi Polling | D+10.0 | 15.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 54% | 0.286 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.345 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+1.1 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | D+2.4 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-29 | 722 | D+7.0 | 13 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | R+0.5 | 5 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-26 | 505 | R+2.9 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-26 | 496 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-25 | 975 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Mason Strategies | 2018-10-17 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| American Viewpoint | 2018-10-16 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-14 | 816 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-14 | 377 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-14 | 783 | D+10.0 | 16 |
| American Viewpoint | 2018-10-09 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| American Viewpoint | 2018-10-02 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 695 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-16 | 1181 | D+2.2 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 677 | R+2.0 | 4 |