Actual result
R+5.8
Final polls said
R+1.6
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | OnMessage Inc. | R+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+8.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+3.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cygnal | R+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | 1st Tuesday Campaigns | R+2.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Vox Populi Polling | R+2.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+1.2 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+0.8 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Remington Research Group | EVEN | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | EVEN | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | EVEN | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 16 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 62% | 0.148 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+0.8 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-02 | 732 | R+3.4 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-01 | 1791 | R+3.9 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-11-01 | 1424 | EVEN | 6 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+0.9 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-31 | 600 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-29 | 741 | EVEN | 6 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | D+1.9 | 8 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-26 | 501 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-10-24 | 1376 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-10-17 | 1215 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2018-10-17 | 800 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2018-10-12 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| 1st Tuesday Campaigns | 2018-10-05 | 1052 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-02 | 1111 | R+1.2 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2018-10-01 | 600 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 683 | EVEN | 6 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-30 | 869 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-27 | 756 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-09-26 | 1555 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-09-12 | 1724 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2018-09-12 | 917 | EVEN | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 675 | D+3.0 | 9 |