Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Missouri Senate

In the 2018 Missouri Senate race, Josh Hawley (R) won by about 6 points.

Josh Hawley· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+5.8

Final polls said

R+1.6

12 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	OnMessage Inc.	R+7.0	1.2	✓
2	Trafalgar Group	R+3.9	1.9	✓
3	McLaughlin & Associates	R+8.0	2.2	✓
4	Emerson College	R+3.4	2.4	✓
5	Cygnal	R+3.0	2.8	✓
6	The Polling Company Inc.	R+3.0	2.8	✓
7	1st Tuesday Campaigns	R+2.0	3.8	✓
8	Vox Populi Polling	R+2.0	3.8	✓
9	Ipsos	R+1.2	4.6	✓
10	Harris Insights & Analytics	R+0.8	5.0	✓
11	Remington Research Group	EVEN	5.8	✗
12	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	EVEN	5.8	✗
13	YouGov	EVEN	5.8	✗
14	Marist College	D+3.0	8.8	✗
15	SSRS	D+3.0	8.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 60%	0.158	✓
3	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 53%	0.221	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 51%	0.240	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 51%	0.240	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—