Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+11.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategic Research Associates | R+16.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+16.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.054 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-29 | 789 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-23 | 1498 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-10-16 | 650 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 704 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-09-22 | 650 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 701 | R+4.0 | 7 |