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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
North Dakota Senate
In the 2018 North Dakota Senate race, Kevin Cramer (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+11.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategic Research Associates | R+16.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.054 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-292
Trafalgar Group2018-10-232
Strategic Research Associates2018-10-165
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-011
Strategic Research Associates2018-09-221
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Dakota Senate race?
Kevin Cramer (R) won, by about 10.8 points (R+10.8).
When was the 2018 North Dakota Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.