← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Senate
North Dakota Senate
In the 2018 North Dakota Senate race, Kevin Cramer (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+11.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategic Research Associates | R+16.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.054 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-292
Trafalgar Group2018-10-232
Strategic Research Associates2018-10-165
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-011
Strategic Research Associates2018-09-221
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Dakota Senate race?
Kevin Cramer (R) won, by about 10.8 points (R+10.8).
When was the 2018 North Dakota Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.