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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
New Mexico Senate
In the 2018 New Mexico Senate race, Martin Heinrich (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+23.6
Final polls said
D+15.3
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | D+25.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+20.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | In Lux Research | D+28.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+16.5 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Pacific Market Research | D+13.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Carroll Strategies | D+12.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-0210
Carroll Strategies2018-10-2911
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-294
Emerson College2018-10-257
Pacific Market Research2018-10-2111
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico Senate race?
Martin Heinrich (D) won, by about 23.6 points (D+23.6).
When was the 2018 New Mexico Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.