Actual result
D+23.6
Final polls said
D+15.3
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | D+25.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+20.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | In Lux Research | D+28.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+18.5 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+16.5 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Research Co. | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Pacific Market Research | D+13.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Carroll Strategies | D+12.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Carroll Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 1202 | D+12.8 | 11 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-10-29 | 993 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 936 | D+16.5 | 7 |
| Pacific Market Research | 2018-10-21 | 400 | D+13.0 | 11 |
| NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | 2018-09-22 | 932 | D+25.6 | 2 |
| In Lux Research | 2018-09-16 | 900 | D+28.0 | 4 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-09-10 | 966 | D+21.0 | 3 |