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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
New Mexico Senate
In the 2018 New Mexico Senate race, Martin Heinrich (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+23.6
Final polls said
D+15.3
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | D+25.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+20.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | In Lux Research | D+28.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+16.5 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Pacific Market Research | D+13.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Carroll Strategies | D+12.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-0210
Carroll Strategies2018-10-2911
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-294
Emerson College2018-10-257
Pacific Market Research2018-10-2111
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico Senate race?
Martin Heinrich (D) won, by about 23.6 points (D+23.6).
When was the 2018 New Mexico Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.