Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Pennsylvania Senate

In the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate race, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

D+13.1

Final polls said

D+13.3

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+14.0	0.9	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	D+14.0	0.9	✓
3	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+15.0	1.9	✓
4	Morning Consult	D+15.0	1.9	✓
5	Ipsos	D+15.6	2.5	✓
6	Research Co.	D+17.0	3.9	✓
7	Change Research	D+7.0	6.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓