Actual result
D+13.1
Final polls said
D+13.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+15.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+10.9 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+15.6 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Research Co. | D+17.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Change Research | D+7.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 1833 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2018-10-30 | 421 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2018-10-25 | 214 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2018-10-01 | 1188 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2018-09-20 | 204 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-16 | 1080 | D+15.6 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2018-09-16 | 404 | D+18.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2018-09-12 | 800 | D+14.0 | 1 |