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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate race, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.1
Final polls said
D+13.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+15.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+15.6 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Research Co. | D+17.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Change Research | D+7.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
Research Co.2018-11-024
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2018-10-301
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2018-10-252
Morning Consult2018-10-012
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won, by about 13.1 points (D+13.1).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.