Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+4.8
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+8.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+14.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Vox Populi Polling | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cygnal | R+5.8 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | R+5.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | SSRS | R+4.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+3.3 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Ipsos | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Targoz Market Research | EVEN | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | EVEN | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 73% | 0.072 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | 2018-10-30 | 480 | EVEN | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-29 | 632 | R+8.4 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-29 | 718 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-28 | 780 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | 2018-10-26 | 495 | EVEN | 11 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 764 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-26 | 497 | R+5.8 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-25 | 471 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2018-10-11 | 558 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-10 | 800 | D+1.0 | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-10 | 593 | R+14.4 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-08 | 1108 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-04 | 871 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 666 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2018-09-24 | 600 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2018-09-17 | 1609 | EVEN | 11 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-17 | 567 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-13 | 723 | D+5.0 | 16 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2018-09-11 | 1038 | R+3.3 | 7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 686 | R+3.0 | 8 |