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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Tennessee Senate
In the 2018 Tennessee Senate race, Marsha Blackburn (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+4.8
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+8.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+14.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Vox Populi Polling | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cygnal | R+5.8 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | R+5.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | SSRS | R+4.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+3.3 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Targoz Market Research | EVEN | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | EVEN | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 73% | 0.072 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
20 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Targoz Market Research2018-10-3011
Emerson College2018-10-292
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-292
Vox Populi Polling2018-10-285
East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory2018-10-2611
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Tennessee Senate race?
Marsha Blackburn (R) won, by about 10.8 points (R+10.8).
When was the 2018 Tennessee Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.