Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Tennessee Senate

In the 2018 Tennessee Senate race, Marsha Blackburn (R) won by about 11 points.

Actual result

R+10.8

Final polls said

R+4.8

8 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+9.0	1.8	✓
2	Emerson College	R+8.4	2.4	✓
3	YouGov	R+8.0	2.8	✓
4	The New York Times/Siena College	R+14.4	3.6	✓
5	Vox Populi Polling	R+6.0	4.8	✓
6	Cygnal	R+5.8	5.0	✓
7	Marist College	R+5.0	5.8	✓
8	SSRS	R+4.0	6.8	✓
9	American Pulse Research & Polling	R+3.3	7.5	✓
10	Ipsos	R+3.0	7.8	✓
11	Targoz Market Research	EVEN	10.8	✗
12	East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory	EVEN	10.8	✗
13	SurveyMonkey	EVEN	10.8	✗
14	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+2.0	12.8	✗

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 80%	0.040	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 78%	0.047	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 73%	0.072	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—