Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
R+5.0
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+3.1 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+3.6 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | GBAO | R+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Tulchin Research | R+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Blueprint Polling | R+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | R+4.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Change Research | EVEN | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | Vox Populi Polling | EVEN | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | SSRS | R+7.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.1 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Trafalgar Group | R+8.9 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | WPA Intelligence | R+9.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 17 | Dixie Strategies | R+10.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 18 | VotePredictor | R+11.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 72% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-04 | 2135 | R+8.9 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-01 | 1211 | EVEN | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-29 | 781 | R+3.1 | 1 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-10-25 | 588 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-25 | 1078 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 2018-10-21 | 905 | R+3.6 | 1 |
| GBAO | 2018-10-20 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-18 | 927 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-15 | 1298 | R+4.5 | 2 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-10-12 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-11 | 716 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2018-10-10 | 801 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-10 | 800 | R+8.1 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-06 | 730 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-04 | 881 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-03 | 500 | R+4.6 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-19 | 603 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-17 | 508 | EVEN | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-09-14 | 807 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Blueprint Polling | 2018-09-11 | 1161 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-10 | 992 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2018-09-08 | 800 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-09-06 | 519 | R+4.1 | 2 |