Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Texas Senate

In the 2018 Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz (R) won by about 3 points.

Ted Cruz· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+2.6

Final polls said

R+5.0

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	0.4	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	R+3.0	0.4	✓
3	Emerson College	R+3.1	0.5	✓
4	University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research	R+3.6	1.0	✓
5	GBAO	R+4.0	1.4	✓
6	Tulchin Research	R+4.0	1.4	✓
7	Blueprint Polling	R+4.0	1.4	✓
8	Ipsos	R+4.5	1.9	✓
9	Quinnipiac University	R+5.0	2.4	✓
10	Change Research	EVEN	2.6	✗
11	Vox Populi Polling	EVEN	2.6	✗
12	YouGov	R+6.0	3.4	✓
13	SSRS	R+7.0	4.4	✓
14	The New York Times/Siena College	R+8.1	5.5	✓
15	Trafalgar Group	R+8.9	6.3	✓
16	WPA Intelligence	R+9.0	6.4	✓
17	Dixie Strategies	R+10.0	7.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 89%	0.012	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 72%	0.076	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—