Actual result
D+39.9
Final polls said
D+36.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+38.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | D+41.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+38.6 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+36.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tulchin Research | D+55.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-31 | 885 | D+36.0 | 4 |
| Braun Research | 2018-10-09 | 495 | D+41.0 | 1 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-09-25 | 406 | D+55.0 | 15 |