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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Vermont Senate
In the 2018 Vermont Senate race, Lawrence Zupan (D) won by about 40 points.
Actual result
D+39.9
Final polls said
D+36.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | D+41.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+36.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | D+55.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-314
Braun Research2018-10-091
Tulchin Research2018-09-2515
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Vermont Senate race?
Lawrence Zupan (D) won, by about 39.9 points (D+39.9).
When was the 2018 Vermont Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.