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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Wisconsin Senate
In the 2018 Wisconsin Senate race, Tammy Baldwin (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+11.5
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+8.7 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+15.2 | 4.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-020
Emerson College2018-10-302
Marquette University Law School2018-10-260
Ipsos2018-10-154
Public Policy Polling2018-10-101
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin Senate race?
Tammy Baldwin (D) won, by about 10.8 points (D+10.8).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.