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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Wisconsin Senate
In the 2018 Wisconsin Senate race, Tammy Baldwin (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+11.5
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+8.7 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+15.2 | 4.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-020
Emerson College2018-10-302
Marquette University Law School2018-10-260
Ipsos2018-10-154
Public Policy Polling2018-10-101
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin Senate race?
Tammy Baldwin (D) won, by about 10.8 points (D+10.8).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.