Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+11.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+8.7 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+8.2 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+15.2 | 4.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-30 | 604 | D+8.7 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2018-10-26 | 1154 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-15 | 1193 | D+15.2 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-10 | 816 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2018-10-05 | 799 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-02 | 571 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-18 | 1109 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2018-09-14 | 614 | D+11.0 | 0 |