Actual result
D+2.7
Final polls said
D+1.9
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | D+2.2 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Targoz Market Research | D+4.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | JMC Analytics | D+0.5 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Data for Progress | D+0.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Edgewater Research/My People Vote | D+0.3 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | We Ask America | EVEN | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.2 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 10 | Spry Strategies | R+4.5 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Impact Research | D+16.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2019-11-14 | 1107 | R+1.2 | 4 |
| JMC Analytics | 2019-11-12 | 600 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| Edgewater Research/My People Vote | 2019-11-11 | 661 | D+0.3 | 2 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2019-11-10 | 640 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Cygnal | 2019-11-08 | 800 | D+2.2 | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2019-11-06 | 1434 | D+0.4 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2019-11-06 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Edgewater Research/My People Vote | 2019-10-28 | 722 | D+3.7 | 1 |
| JMC Analytics | 2019-10-25 | 600 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| We Ask America | 2019-10-15 | 600 | EVEN | 3 |
| Spry Strategies | 2019-10-08 | 700 | R+4.5 | 7 |
| Impact Research | 2019-10-02 | 900 | D+16.0 | 13 |