Actual result
R+16.4
Final polls said
R+6.3
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+9.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+6.6 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Remington Research Group | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 14.4 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group | 2020-10-28 | 1010 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Cygnal | 2020-10-19 | 600 | R+6.6 | 10 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-10-14 | 1010 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-30 | 931 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-09-30 | 980 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-30 | 600 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-09-16 | 1046 | R+9.0 | 7 |