Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Alaska Survey Research | D+2.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 70% | 0.091 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 770 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 423 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2020-09-29 | 676 | D+2.0 | 11 |