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Toss-up · 2020 House
Alaska House
In the 2020 Alaska House race, Don Young (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | D+2.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 70% | 0.091 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2020-10-274
The New York Times/Siena College2020-10-111
Alaska Survey Research2020-09-2911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Alaska House race?
Don Young (R) won, by about 9.1 points (R+9.1).
When was the 2020 Alaska House election held?
It was held in November 2020.