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Toss-up · 2020 House
Alaska House
In the 2020 Alaska House race, Don Young (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | D+2.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 70% | 0.091 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2020-10-274
The New York Times/Siena College2020-10-111
Alaska Survey Research2020-09-2911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Alaska House race?
Don Young (R) won, by about 9.1 points (R+9.1).
When was the 2020 Alaska House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.