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Toss-up · 2020 House
Arkansas House
In the 2020 Arkansas House race, French Hill (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.7
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+0.5 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | EVEN | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Impact Research | EVEN | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | D+2.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.187 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-3111
Impact Research2020-10-1811
Hendrix College2020-10-1210
Impact Research2020-09-2811
brilliant corners Research & Strategies2020-09-1313
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arkansas House race?
French Hill (R) won, by about 10.7 points (R+10.7).
When was the 2020 Arkansas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.