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Toss-up · 2020 House
Arkansas House
In the 2020 Arkansas House race, French Hill (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.7
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+0.5 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | EVEN | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Impact Research | EVEN | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | D+2.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.187 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-3111
Impact Research2020-10-1811
Hendrix College2020-10-1210
Impact Research2020-09-2811
brilliant corners Research & Strategies2020-09-1313
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arkansas House race?
French Hill (R) won, by about 10.7 points (R+10.7).
When was the 2020 Arkansas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.