Actual result
R+10.7
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.6 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Hendrix College | R+0.5 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | EVEN | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Impact Research | EVEN | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | D+2.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 63% | 0.138 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.187 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 586 | EVEN | 11 |
| Impact Research | 2020-10-18 | 500 | EVEN | 11 |
| Hendrix College | 2020-10-12 | 644 | R+0.5 | 10 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-28 | 511 | EVEN | 11 |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 2020-09-13 | 605 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-11 | 511 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Hendrix College | 2020-09-06 | 698 | R+1.5 | 9 |