Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | GQR | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.356 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-26 | 582 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| GQR | 2020-09-25 | 500 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-09-25 | 531 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-22 | 527 | R+2.0 | 2 |