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Toss-up · 2020 House
Arizona House
In the 2020 Arizona House race, David Schweikert (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 50% | 0.252 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.356 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-268
GQR2020-09-258
Noble Predictive Insights2020-09-251
Public Policy Polling2020-09-222
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arizona House race?
David Schweikert (R) won, by about 4.3 points (R+4.3).
When was the 2020 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2020.