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Toss-up · 2020 House
Arizona House
In the 2020 Arizona House race, David Schweikert (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | D+4.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 50% | 0.252 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.356 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-268
GQR2020-09-258
Noble Predictive Insights2020-09-251
Public Policy Polling2020-09-222
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arizona House race?
David Schweikert (R) won, by about 4.3 points (R+4.3).
When was the 2020 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.