Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+3.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breakthrough Campaigns | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 52% | 0.267 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 70% | 0.494 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakthrough Campaigns | 2020-10-05 | 644 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2020-09-22 | 400 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-05-08 | 675 | D+2.0 | 12 |