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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Mike Garcia (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+3.3
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breakthrough Campaigns | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 56% | 0.311 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 70% | 0.494 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Breakthrough Campaigns2020-10-052
Normington, Petts & Associates2020-09-226
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-05-0812
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Mike Garcia (R) won, by about 0.1 points (R+0.1).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.