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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Mike Garcia (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+3.3
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breakthrough Campaigns | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 70% | 0.494 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 77% | 0.586 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Breakthrough Campaigns2020-10-052
Normington, Petts & Associates2020-09-226
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-05-0812
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Mike Garcia (R) won, by about 0.1 points (R+0.1).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.