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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Young Kim (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.461 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 82% | 0.674 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 83% | 0.689 | ✗ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-130
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Young Kim (R) won, by about 1.2 points (R+1.2).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.