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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Young Kim (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 82% | 0.674 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 82% | 0.676 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 83% | 0.689 | ✗ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-130
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Young Kim (R) won, by about 1.2 points (R+1.2).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.