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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Darrell Issa (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+7.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategies 360 | EVEN | 7.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 82% | 0.034 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2020-10-243
Strategies 3602020-10-128
SurveyUSA2020-09-067
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Darrell Issa (R) won, by about 7.9 points (R+7.9).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.