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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Darrell Issa (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+7.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategies 360 | EVEN | 7.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 82% | 0.034 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2020-10-243
Strategies 3602020-10-128
SurveyUSA2020-09-067
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Darrell Issa (R) won, by about 7.9 points (R+7.9).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.