Actual result
R+7.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | EVEN | 7.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-24 | 538 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-10-12 | 401 | EVEN | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-06 | 508 | R+1.0 | 7 |