Actual result
R+6.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+1.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Expedition Strategies | D+2.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.278 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-10-19 | 491 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Expedition Strategies | 2020-09-11 | 754 | D+2.0 | 8 |