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Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, Scott Franklin (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | R+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 80% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-239
St. Pete Polls2020-10-153
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-10-028
GQR2020-09-054
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
Scott Franklin (R) won, by about 10.8 points (R+10.8).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.