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Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, Scott Franklin (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | R+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 80% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-239
St. Pete Polls2020-10-153
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-10-028
GQR2020-09-054
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
Scott Franklin (R) won, by about 10.8 points (R+10.8).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.