Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | R+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-23 | 530 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-10-15 | 943 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-10-02 | 390 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| GQR | 2020-09-05 | 400 | R+7.0 | 4 |