Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+11.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data Targeting | R+15.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.031 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Targeting | 2020-10-20 | 400 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| Data Targeting | 2020-10-07 | 403 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-07 | 527 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Data Targeting | 2020-09-30 | 400 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-26 | 500 | R+6.0 | 5 |