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Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, Vern Buchanan (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data Targeting | R+15.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data Targeting2020-10-204
Data Targeting2020-10-074
Change Research2020-10-078
Data Targeting2020-09-305
Global Strategy Group2020-09-265
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
Vern Buchanan (R) won, by about 11.0 points (R+11.0).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.