← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, Vern Buchanan (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data Targeting | R+15.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data Targeting2020-10-204
Data Targeting2020-10-074
Change Research2020-10-078
Data Targeting2020-09-305
Global Strategy Group2020-09-265
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
Vern Buchanan (R) won, by about 11.0 points (R+11.0).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.