Actual result
R+14.8
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.7 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Clearview Research | D+2.0 | 16.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearview Research | 2020-10-08 | 301 | D+2.0 | 17 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-09-18 | 1149 | R+8.0 | 7 |