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Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, Brian Mast (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.8
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clearview Research | D+2.0 | 16.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 75% | 0.061 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Clearview Research2020-10-0817
St. Pete Polls2020-09-187
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
Brian Mast (R) won, by about 14.8 points (R+14.8).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.