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Toss-up · 2020 House
Iowa House
In the 2020 Iowa House race, Ashley Hinson (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basswood Research | EVEN | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.503 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.672 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 82% | 0.678 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.757 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 91% | 0.830 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-1717
Basswood Research2020-09-273
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Iowa House race?
Ashley Hinson (R) won, by about 2.6 points (R+2.6).
When was the 2020 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.