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Toss-up · 2020 House
Iowa House
In the 2020 Iowa House race, Ashley Hinson (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basswood Research | EVEN | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.503 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.672 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 82% | 0.678 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.757 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 94% | 0.892 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-1717
Basswood Research2020-09-273
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Iowa House race?
Ashley Hinson (R) won, by about 2.6 points (R+2.6).
When was the 2020 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2020.