Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+14.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basswood Research | EVEN | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+14.6 | 17.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.503 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.672 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 82% | 0.678 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.757 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 91% | 0.827 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-17 | 352 | D+14.0 | 17 |
| Basswood Research | 2020-09-27 | 400 | EVEN | 3 |