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Toss-up · 2020 House
Iowa House
In the 2020 Iowa House race, Cindy Axne (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-1713
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Iowa House race?
Cindy Axne (D) won, by about 1.4 points (D+1.4).
When was the 2020 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.