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Toss-up · 2020 House
Iowa House
In the 2020 Iowa House race, Cindy Axne (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-1713
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Iowa House race?
Cindy Axne (D) won, by about 1.4 points (D+1.4).
When was the 2020 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2020.