Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.5 | 13.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-17 | 426 | D+14.0 | 13 |