Actual result
R+24.2
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+23.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.8 | 16.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 19.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+3.0 | 21.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-17 | 414 | R+3.0 | 21 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-14 | 603 | R+5.0 | 19 |
| American Viewpoint | 2020-10-07 | 400 | R+23.0 | 1 |