← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Rodney Davis (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.9
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+5.0 | 13.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.227 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.266 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.307 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tulchin Research2020-10-0314
GBAO2020-09-198
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Rodney Davis (R) won, by about 8.9 points (R+8.9).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.