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Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Rodney Davis (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.9
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+5.0 | 13.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 53% | 0.219 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.227 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.307 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tulchin Research2020-10-0314
GBAO2020-09-198
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Rodney Davis (R) won, by about 8.9 points (R+8.9).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.