Actual result
R+8.9
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | D+5.0 | 13.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.227 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.307 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 2020-10-03 | 400 | D+5.0 | 14 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-19 | 500 | R+1.0 | 8 |