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Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Cheri Bustos (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+10.6
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+6.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victory Research | D+10.6 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2020-10-317
Tarrance Group2020-10-111
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Cheri Bustos (D) won, by about 4.0 points (D+4.0).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.