Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+10.6
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+6.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+10.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Victory Research | D+10.6 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+10.6 | 7 |
| Tarrance Group | 2020-10-11 | 418 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-05 | 400 | D+6.0 | 2 |