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Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Cheri Bustos (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+10.6
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+6.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victory Research | D+10.6 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2020-10-317
Tarrance Group2020-10-111
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Cheri Bustos (D) won, by about 4.0 points (D+4.0).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.