← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Marie Newman (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+23.3
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+23.3 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ogden & Fry | D+2.2 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2020-10-3111
Ogden & Fry2020-09-0711
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Marie Newman (D) won, by about 12.8 points (D+12.8).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.