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Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Marie Newman (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+23.3
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+23.3 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ogden & Fry | D+2.2 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2020-10-3111
Ogden & Fry2020-09-0711
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Marie Newman (D) won, by about 12.8 points (D+12.8).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.