Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+23.3
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+21.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+21.2 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victory Research | D+23.3 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ogden & Fry | D+2.2 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+23.3 | 11 |
| Ogden & Fry | 2020-09-07 | 759 | D+2.2 | 11 |