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Toss-up · 2020 House
Maine House
In the 2020 Maine House race, Jared Forrest Golden (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+17.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | D+9.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+18.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+19.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Colby College | D+25.0 | 18.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+27.7 | 21.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Colby College2020-10-2319
Pan Atlantic Research2020-10-0422
Digital Research2020-09-2912
Colby College2020-09-2017
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Maine House race?
Jared Forrest Golden (D) won, by about 6.1 points (D+6.1).
When was the 2020 Maine House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.