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Toss-up · 2020 House
Maine House
In the 2020 Maine House race, Jared Forrest Golden (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+17.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | D+9.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+18.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+19.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Colby College | D+25.0 | 18.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+27.7 | 21.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Colby College2020-10-2319
Pan Atlantic Research2020-10-0422
Digital Research2020-09-2912
Colby College2020-09-2017
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Maine House race?
Jared Forrest Golden (D) won, by about 6.1 points (D+6.1).
When was the 2020 Maine House election held?
It was held in November 2020.