Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+17.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | D+9.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+17.1 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | D+18.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+19.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Colby College | D+25.0 | 18.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+27.7 | 21.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 475 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Colby College | 2020-10-23 | 449 | D+25.0 | 19 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2020-10-04 | 300 | D+27.7 | 22 |
| Digital Research | 2020-09-29 | 234 | D+18.0 | 12 |
| Colby College | 2020-09-20 | 275 | D+23.0 | 17 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-13 | 440 | D+19.0 | 13 |