Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.9 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Strategic National | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+5.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National | 2020-10-16 | 400 | EVEN | 6 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-10-08 | 449 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| National Research | 2020-10-06 | 400 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2020-09-19 | 400 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-18 | 501 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-09 | 400 | EVEN | 6 |