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Toss-up · 2020 House
Michigan House
In the 2020 Michigan House race, Peter Meijer (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategic National | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+5.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.196 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Strategic National2020-10-166
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-10-0811
National Research2020-10-061
We Ask America2020-09-191
Impact Research2020-09-188
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Michigan House race?
Peter Meijer (R) won, by about 5.9 points (R+5.9).
When was the 2020 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.