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Toss-up · 2020 House
Michigan House
In the 2020 Michigan House race, Peter Meijer (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategic National | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+5.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.196 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Strategic National2020-10-166
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-10-0811
National Research2020-10-061
We Ask America2020-09-191
Impact Research2020-09-188
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Michigan House race?
Peter Meijer (R) won, by about 5.9 points (R+5.9).
When was the 2020 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2020.