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Toss-up · 2020 House
Minnesota House
In the 2020 Minnesota House race, Jim Hagedorn (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.1
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 3.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.114 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.224 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-09-103
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Minnesota House race?
Jim Hagedorn (R) won, by about 3.1 points (R+3.1).
When was the 2020 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.