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Toss-up · 2020 House
Missouri House
In the 2020 Missouri House race, Ann Wagner (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.4
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | EVEN | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 70% | 0.091 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-11-016
Normington, Petts & Associates2020-09-126
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Missouri House race?
Ann Wagner (R) won, by about 6.4 points (R+6.4).
When was the 2020 Missouri House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.