Actual result
R+6.4
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | EVEN | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 71% | 0.087 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-11-01 | 597 | EVEN | 6 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2020-09-12 | 400 | EVEN | 6 |