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Toss-up · 2020 House
Missouri House
In the 2020 Missouri House race, Ann Wagner (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.4
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | EVEN | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 68% | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-11-016
Normington, Petts & Associates2020-09-126
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Missouri House race?
Ann Wagner (R) won, by about 6.4 points (R+6.4).
When was the 2020 Missouri House election held?
It was held in November 2020.