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Toss-up · 2020 House
North Carolina House
In the 2020 North Carolina House race, David Madison Cawthorn (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMC Research | D+3.0 | 15.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.173 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
EMC Research2020-10-1715
EMC Research2020-09-2316
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina House race?
David Madison Cawthorn (R) won, by about 12.2 points (R+12.2).
When was the 2020 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.