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Toss-up · 2020 House
North Carolina House
In the 2020 North Carolina House race, David Madison Cawthorn (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMC Research | D+3.0 | 15.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.173 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 54% | 0.293 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
EMC Research2020-10-1715
EMC Research2020-09-2316
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina House race?
David Madison Cawthorn (R) won, by about 12.2 points (R+12.2).
When was the 2020 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2020.