Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.6 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | EMC Research | D+3.0 | 15.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.041 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 73% | 0.074 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.173 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMC Research | 2020-10-17 | 400 | D+3.0 | 15 |
| EMC Research | 2020-09-23 | 400 | D+4.0 | 16 |