Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
D+0.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | R+2.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.7 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+3.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.150 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.155 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-10-05 | 433 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 2020-09-28 | 614 | R+2.0 | 5 |