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Toss-up · 2020 House
North Carolina House
In the 2020 North Carolina House race, Dan Bishop (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.2
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | LOC Wick | D+3.8 | 14.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.146 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-289
LOC Wick2020-10-0115
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina House race?
Dan Bishop (R) won, by about 11.2 points (R+11.2).
When was the 2020 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.