Actual result
R+11.2
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.2 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | LOC Wick | D+3.8 | 14.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 62% | 0.148 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-28 | 750 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| LOC Wick | 2020-10-01 | 400 | D+3.8 | 15 |