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Toss-up · 2020 House
North Carolina House
In the 2020 North Carolina House race, Dan Bishop (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.2
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | LOC Wick | D+3.8 | 14.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 67% | 0.111 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-289
LOC Wick2020-10-0115
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina House race?
Dan Bishop (R) won, by about 11.2 points (R+11.2).
When was the 2020 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2020.