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Toss-up · 2020 House
Nebraska House
In the 2020 Nebraska House race, Don Bacon (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+4.6
Final polls said
R+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | R+1.1 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | FM3 Research | D+2.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.215 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 53% | 0.276 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School2020-11-013
Change Research2020-10-316
Emerson College2020-10-292
FM3 Research2020-10-037
The New York Times/Siena College2020-09-263
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Nebraska House race?
Don Bacon (R) won, by about 4.6 points (R+4.6).
When was the 2020 Nebraska House election held?
It was held in November 2020.