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Toss-up · 2020 House
Nebraska House
In the 2020 Nebraska House race, Don Bacon (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+4.6
Final polls said
R+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | R+1.1 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | FM3 Research | D+2.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.215 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 53% | 0.276 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School2020-11-013
Change Research2020-10-316
Emerson College2020-10-292
FM3 Research2020-10-037
The New York Times/Siena College2020-09-263
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Nebraska House race?
Don Bacon (R) won, by about 4.6 points (R+4.6).
When was the 2020 Nebraska House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.