Actual result
R+4.6
Final polls said
R+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.4 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | R+1.1 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | FM3 Research | D+2.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.215 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 53% | 0.276 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 2020-11-01 | 191 | R+1.1 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 547 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-29 | 806 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| FM3 Research | 2020-10-03 | 450 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-26 | 420 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-15 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |