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Toss-up · 2020 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2020 New Hampshire House race, Chris Pappas (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 67% | 0.107 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-10-267
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2020-10-250
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-10-115
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2020-10-033
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-09-2613
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Hampshire House race?
Chris Pappas (D) won, by about 5.1 points (D+5.1).
When was the 2020 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2020.