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Toss-up · 2020 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2020 New Hampshire House race, Chris Pappas (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 67% | 0.107 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-10-267
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2020-10-250
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-10-115
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2020-10-033
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-09-2613
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Hampshire House race?
Chris Pappas (D) won, by about 5.1 points (D+5.1).
When was the 2020 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.