Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 67% | 0.112 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-26 | 451 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-25 | 560 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-11 | 477 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-03 | 595 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-09-26 | 504 | D+18.0 | 13 |