Actual result
R+5.8
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+1.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.7 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 57% | 0.331 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.349 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.375 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2020-10-24 | 676 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-28 | 588 | D+7.0 | 13 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-16 | 505 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-14 | 550 | D+5.0 | 11 |