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Toss-up · 2020 House
New Jersey House
In the 2020 New Jersey House race, Jeff Van Drew (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.8
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+1.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 57% | 0.331 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.349 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.374 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2020-10-247
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-09-2813
Impact Research2020-09-1610
Public Policy Polling2020-09-1411
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Jersey House race?
Jeff Van Drew (R) won, by about 5.8 points (R+5.8).
When was the 2020 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2020.