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Toss-up · 2020 House
New Jersey House
In the 2020 New Jersey House race, Jeff Van Drew (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.8
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+1.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 57% | 0.331 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.349 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.374 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2020-10-247
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-09-2813
Impact Research2020-09-1610
Public Policy Polling2020-09-1411
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Jersey House race?
Jeff Van Drew (R) won, by about 5.8 points (R+5.8).
When was the 2020 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.